Season 1, Ep. 3: Are You Sure?

Our brains love simple narratives and black-and-white thinking. But unfortunately for our brains, life is usually never that simple. In many of the decisions we make, both at home and at work, there are often multiple variables at play, there is some important information we do not have access to, and luck can play a big role in how things turn out. And when we try to oversimplify something when it’s actually nuanced and complex, our decision-making suffers.

Join us as we talk with decision-making expert and former poker player Annie Duke as she highlights the common gaps in our thinking, and what you as a leader can do to embrace uncertainty in your decision-making and get better results.

View Transcript >>

Speaker 1 (00:00):

So I actually, I actually have a story. That’s the reverse, where I had very little chance of winning

Speaker 2 (00:07):

That’s former professional poker player, Annie Duke, during her career. And he won more than $4 million in tournament poker, including a world series of poker, gold bracelet and a national heads up poker championship.

Speaker 1 (00:22):

It was at

Speaker 2 (00:22):

One of these heads up pro championships in 2010. When Annie found herself playing head to head with fellow pro Paul Waseca, and one particular hand went South in a hurry.

Speaker 1 (00:35):

So I play a hand against him where we’re both betting at each other. And we end up putting all of our money in the pot and I have ACE 10 and he has two

Speaker 3 (00:46):

ACE 10 for Annie. She goes all in ACEs, dishing out the dismay. Talk about evil when it rains, it pours, huh?

Speaker 2 (01:02):

Familiar with Texas Hold’em poker. Here’s why both Annie and the announcers were. So dismayed hand starts with each player being dealt. Two cards face down the higher your cards. And if you have a matching pair, the better your chances are of winning the hand. And he was dealt an ACE and a ten one of the better hands. You can start with feeling confident. She pushed all of her chips into the pot, but then her opponent flipped his hand over to reveal to ACEs the best possible starting combination. Annie now only had a 7% chance of winning the hand and staying alive in the tournament. The dealer dealt the next three cards.

Speaker 3 (01:44):

Here’s the plot. Not often, you’re in the single digits in percentages to win the hand pre-flop trip ACEs for the Rasika.

Speaker 2 (01:55):

If things couldn’t get any worse and he, his opponent now had three ACEs dropping her chances of winning to almost zero, the announcers and everyone in that room thought she was headed home.

Speaker 3 (02:06):

Here’s the third time to pack your bags,

Speaker 2 (02:08):

But then the dealer flipped over the next card. Revealing a queen

Speaker 3 (02:12):

Turns. Doesn’t finish Annie off. She’s got a gunshot straight draw. Now, very small glimmer of hope with that queen

Speaker 2 (02:22):

Annie was now one King away from pulling off an incredibly unlikely to come back.

Speaker 3 (02:27):

Here’s the [inaudible] the process.

Speaker 2 (02:47):

Andy won a hand that everyone thought she was certain to lose, even though she still had a 9% chance of winning right before that final card was flipped. Everyone misinterpreted that to, she was finished, they were ready to send her packing and give her opponent the victory. But in reality, things weren’t, as certain as everyone watching might’ve thought it may have been an unlikely outcome, but that King was still in the deck waiting to be drawn both at work and in our lives, there are decisions. We make that like Annie’s winning poker hand. Don’t always play out the way we expect them to. And like the announcers and the spectators watching what they thought was any sure defeat. We tend to oversimplify things to jump to conclusions and overlook how our thinking might be flawed. And we too can get caught off guard when things don’t unfold, how we think they should. So how do we avoid this trap? How can we think smarter and make better decisions by embracing uncertainty? I’m Daniel Harkavy. And this is the building champions podcast for the past 25 plus years. I and my team here at building champions have been helping top business leaders to improve the way they live and lead. Our goal for this podcast is to share stories and insights that will help you to become a better leader. This episode is about decision-making and how ditching black and white thinking and embracing uncertainty can transform both your decision-making and your leadership.

Speaker 2 (04:33):

As you listened to how Annie’s hand played out, how she came back from almost a 0% chance of winning, you may have thought that those low odds meant Annie had played the hand poorly, and that she was just lucky to get out of that jam. Annie would agree that she was very lucky, but she would also tell you that this near loss and lucky outcome was not the product of poor. Decision-making

Speaker 1 (04:57):

Looking back at that hand against only one other player. It was totally reasonable for me to have my money in the pot with these 10. You know, I D I don’t think that I made a mistake, which is important because very often when we see that the result didn’t go our way, we immediately go to like, Oh, I must’ve played the hand badly, or I made a mistake. But in this particular case, particularly the way the hand played, it was, it was reasonable for me to have my money in the pot there, but he just turned out to have a much better hand.

Speaker 3 (05:26):


Speaker 1 (05:26):

Stuff happens and, you know, I got lucky and that’s okay. Cause I ended up winning that tournament

Speaker 2 (05:33):

In addition to being a professional poker player. And he is also a decision strategist and consultant. She spent years studying, writing and speaking about the science of smart decision-making. So she knows that our decisions and outcomes don’t always line up the way we think they should. Most of us tend to think there’s a direct line that connects our decisions and their outcomes. We think that the quality of the outcome determines the quality of the decision. A good outcome meant that your decision was sound and a bad outcome means that you made a poor decision. This is called resulting. And it’s a simplistic perspective that ignores how things work in the real world. There’s hidden information and unknown variables that make our decisions more difficult and luck plays a huge role, a good or a bad outcome. Even one that’s highly unlikely, still has a chance of occurring against the odds.

Speaker 2 (06:30):

In other words, with all the nuance and gray area that reigns in our everyday lives, it’s hard to fairly judge the quality of a decision based on how it turns out, but here’s the thing our brains don’t do well with that kind of nuance. We love simplicity in black and white thinking. Instead of working in that gray area, we constantly drive toward a right or a wrong a yes or a no mindset when we’re presented with information that goes against what we think and believe we’re left with only two choices. Either we change our beliefs or we resist refute and ignore that new information. And if we’re honest, most of us tend toward the latter. When our beliefs are challenged, we become defensive and we start purposefully seeking out information that backs up what we already believe and discrediting information that contradicts our beliefs.

Speaker 1 (07:27):

We’d like to talk to people who agree with us because that affirms our beliefs. Um, we don’t like to talk to so much to people who don’t agree with us because that feels like an assault on our identity. It feels like they’re telling us we’re wrong. We notice information that confirms the beliefs that we have. If we are confronted with information that disagrees with our beliefs, we will work very hard to discredit it. That’s called this confirmation bias. And there’s, there’s a variety of things that we do in this regard that all forms, this pattern of thought called motivated reasoning, where the way that we process information is to affirm that we’re right, as opposed to the way that we process information, being to try to figure out objectively what is true

Speaker 2 (08:13):

As a leader. It’s absolutely essential that you take the time to pause and recognize these biases in your own thinking. And it’s not just defensive biases that have the potential to shut down your team members and stifle creativity. Even if you’re willing to listen to others and allow space for conversation, communicating with overconfidence can also shut people down.

Speaker 1 (08:37):

Let’s assume that that leadership is actually trying to do a good job and, uh, thinks that it’s right, that you have like real discussion among the group. There’s all sorts of ways in which that can go wrong. Because what naturally happens is if, if the person in the room who’s in the leadership says what their opinion is about something generally what will happen is that the people in the room will tend to start to reason toward that opinion. So I might say like, I’m really considering, uh, investing in this particular strategy. Here’s a bunch of reasons why it might be good, or it might be bad. Here’s some data, blah, blah, blah. And then you follow it with, I think it’s an amazing thing. And I think that we should do it, but I’m interested in getting your opinion once you said that thing, I think it’s amazing. I really I’m leaning toward it. I think we should do it. Any of those things that add that color to it, you’ve kind of ruined the ability for that person to give you really high fidelity feedback.

Speaker 2 (09:44):

Even when no harm was meant, this kind of communication, priming your team members by telling them how you, as a leader, feel about some information can shut down authentic dialogue. What you’ve done is you’ve removed any nuance and essentially asked, do you agree with me or not? You frame the conversation in black and white terms. And when you’re in a leadership position, the people you lead will be reluctant to go against what you say, whether it’s from defensive biases or your inability to temper your overconfidence in your communication, by inviting black and white thinking, our teams, our decisions, and our leadership all suffer. So how can you avoid these pitfalls and instead think smarter and make better decisions. It all starts with the shift in mindset, instead of thinking in black and white, you must, as Annie says, start thinking in bets.

Speaker 1 (10:41):

If instead I think about my beliefs on a continuum, like I have this belief and how sure am I, that this thing is true, you know, and maybe I’m 60% on it, or maybe I’m 70% on it, or maybe I’m 40% on it. And I understand that things rarely live out at the edge things or anything that I believe is rarely going to be a hundred percent true or a hundred percent false. It’s going to be somewhere in the middle. Now I’m holding that belief much more loosely. And I’ve got a lot of room for movement that doesn’t involve, you know, I’m wrong. I made a mistake. I was dumb.

Speaker 2 (11:21):

I adopting a mindset that embraces uncertainty and thinks and probabilities. You allow yourself a much greater degree of flexibility. Now, instead of feeling threatened by anything that contradicts your beliefs, you can open yourself up to new information. And this breeds an intentional curiosity that is essential for great leadership. It drives you to ask the questions, to learn and to gather relevant information also that you can better understand the decision at hand and all of its with this mindset, instead of making a strategic decision for your team or organization and saying, this is going to work. You now say I’m 80% sure this strategy is going to work, but there’s a 20% chance that it won’t, this shift changes everything about how you lead your team and make decisions.

Speaker 1 (12:15):

Um, and so now we become less reactive as an organization and more nimble. And obviously that’s going to create more success. But in order to do that, you have to allow for the fact that things might turn out poorly. You have to allow for the idea that, that, that maybe the thing that you’re doing will end in failure. You have to allow for the idea that, that what you know now is maybe not everything that you’re ever going to know that maybe some of you Oh now could use some calibration. Um, and if you don’t allow for that, then you’re completely unprepared for what the future is going to hold for you.

Speaker 2 (12:50):

By allowing for a range of possible outcomes. You’re able to focus on the quality of the decision, not the quality of the outcome. You can forecast, prepare and carry out more diverse plans than if you are only operating under the narrow assumption that this will work. And if the results come in and the strategy didn’t pan out, you won’t be guilty of resulting of conflating the quality of the outcome with the quality of the decision. You won’t overreact and doubt your whole decision-making process because you allowed for that 20% chance that the plan might not work. You can still be confident that you made a good decision. It just so happened that the less likely negative outcome happened to occur. Now you can do the necessary postmortems and learn valuable lessons for the next time. This is the kind of value embracing uncertainty can have for you as a leader and for your team or organization. And I’m 100% sure that that’s the kind of leadership that can make an extraordinary impact coming up. Todd, most center, our vice president of content development. We’ll sit down with one of our building champions, executive coaches to talk about what you as a leader can do to adopt and ideas, and to start making even smarter decisions so that you better lead yourself and your team.

Speaker 4 (14:20):

Hi, I’m Todd know setter, and I work on the content team here at building champions. And this is the part of the podcast where we have the chance to sit down with one of our experienced executive coaches to talk about what we just heard and take a look at how you can apply that to improve both the way you lead and live today. I’m excited to be joined by Jonathan Rogers. He’s a vice president and principal coach here at building champions. He’s been with us for about seven years now and brings more than 30 years of experience in sales marketing, and executive management. Jonathan is well-equipped to help his clients cut the noise and make effective strategic decisions, which makes him a great person to have this conversation with Jonathan. Thanks for joining us.

Speaker 5 (14:58):

All right. It’s great to be here. Thanks very much. I’ll be looking forward to this.

Speaker 4 (15:01):

So when we talk about the quality of a decision more often than not, we tend to tie the outcome of a decision with the quality of the process that we used, right? And he defines that as resulting. How have you seen that affect the clients you’ve worked with,

Speaker 5 (15:15):

From what I’ve seen? A lot of people believe that, uh, if the outcome is not what they wanted or what they expected, then their self doubt begins to kick in about the quality of the decision that they’re making. And they may begin to blame themselves. Uh, it affects what they believe about themselves as a leader and their effectiveness. It begins to affect, um, how they see that team. Cause quite often then a leader will begin to point fingers to others on the team as to, um, why an outcome didn’t come out in the way they expected. And so I think it just keeps coming back to this notion of, um, confidence, belief in oneself and confidence. And that’s critically important. Uh, if you’re going to be an effective leader,

Speaker 4 (16:01):

It’s funny. Cause when we think about leadership, we tend to connect the outcome to the process, right? Which can really cover up two problems, right? Because you can have a good outcome and a bad process, and then you keep doing something the wrong way because you’ve got a good result and vice versa. You can put a lot of strategic planning into an outcome and it doesn’t turn out the way you expected for a lot of reasons. Then you throw out the process rather than sticking to it. Can you talk a little bit about how you’ve seen leaders do one of those two things

Speaker 5 (16:32):

I’ve for sure. Seen leaders stick to, um, maybe a bad direction or a bad decision for too long. Um, quite often it can be about people. It can be about holding on to somebody that they selected for their team. And it turns out after a while that perhaps they’re not the best fit. Um, but they’re going to hold on to that person for longer because well, surely the decision was right in the first place. They felt good about it, but the outcome is not really confirming, uh, that the decision was a good one. And so they’re going to hold onto people perhaps for too long. I see people holding onto, um, strategies, particular directions or strategies, um, initiatives projects, because they can become like a pet project. They put a lot of personal energy and equity into it or their team has, and they’ll hold onto these projects way too long, uh, long after they really should just be cutting their tires and saying, we need to stop, you know, stop our efforts on this particular initiative and move on to something else. The sacred cow.

Speaker 4 (17:38):

Exactly. I would imagine it can also lead to almost a false sense of confidence. Yes. I was playing pickleball with a buddy over the weekend and he hit a shot that hit the net and just trickled over for a winner. Yeah. And the gentleman on the other side of the court immediately said great shot, right? Because the outcome was a winning point. And my partner looked at me without missing a beat and said that was a horrible shot with a good outcome,

Speaker 5 (18:00):

With a good Downey. Exactly. You go, but the

Speaker 4 (18:02):

Tendency is to start congratulating ourselves. Right. Have a great job. We hit a winner. Yes. But if the process that you use to hit the winner isn’t replicable yes. Then suddenly you’re leading yourself to a false sense of confidence.

Speaker 5 (18:13):

Yeah, that’s right. That’s right. And I think on the other side as well, leaders tend to be winners, right? They love a challenge. They, they want to win, they need to win. And therefore they have a belief that their decisions are going to be good. And if the outcomes begin to point out to the opposite, right, then perhaps the decision, then they may either hold onto the decision all day. Like I say, start blaming other people. But, um, I think there’s a very strong inner drive, uh, for many leaders to be in control. And, uh, that sense of loss of control is very difficult for many.

Speaker 4 (18:52):

So the other point that comes to mind is when we talk about a leader wanting to have control often, that means coming to the table with the right answer. I think Annie really touched on this thought of, um, how that can sometimes backfire and actually hurt your effectiveness. I’d love for you to kind of explore that.

Speaker 5 (19:12):

Yeah. When I heard her, I was thinking about a leader, um, that I’m aware of and, uh, it’s actually a leader of that I’m coaching and then I’m coaching one or two people and I’ve coached the team as well. And this leader is a very strong opinionated, very intelligent person, but a very strong character. And he tends to use this force of character to influence it goes back to the influence again, um, the direction of the team, the direction of the business, but what it tends to do is to overpower the team. So he thinks that he is exerting very positive influence and he will often shoot first. He’ll have, he’ll make sure that his opinion, just like, uh, like Annie was talking about there, he’ll make sure that his opinion is table first. And then everybody else is on the defensive because it’s like, well, who’s going to disagree with the boss, especially one who has such, such a powerful personality.

Speaker 5 (20:09):

And so this notion of overpowering, I think again, is, um, where this, this idea of the need to influence which all leaders have is may perhaps overplayed. And it’s at the expense of the quality of the decision. And because if the leader were to give more time and space to the, um, the thoughts and feelings and, and, um, the opinions of the rest of the team, ultimately it’s, it has to be a better quality decision in the end. And I, when I’m coaching with individuals in teams, this is a big, a really significant topic. We talk a lot about, um, you know, how healthy conflict actually is an incredibly important tool and skill to learn in order to drive toward, um, better outcomes, better quality decisions. For sure. The quality of the outcome of the decision is not going to be as good if the leader is really what’s the term like priming, uh, priming the, uh, the opinions of the room before people have a chance to weigh in.

Speaker 4 (21:14):

So I, I love what you said there about priming. And to me, it comes back to thinking here at building champions would be like to talk about the beliefs and behaviors, right? So if a, if a leader is engaging in a particular behavior, like priming, usually there’s a belief that goes behind it, right. And in this case, you know, the leader can come in and say, so I think this is an awesome idea and we should definitely do it, but what do you guys think? Right. We’ve just flavored them. What do you think? What, what belief pattern is most common in leaders where they feel that need to kind of share their own opinion? First?

Speaker 5 (21:50):

I think if they’re honest and you know, one of the benefits of, of having a coach is that we can be able to point these things out in them. They have a belief that they’re more often than not they’re right, and more right than other people in the room. Um, that they’re the smartest one in the room. That’s why I sit at the end of the table. And the rest of you, you know, these are sort of, as I say, if they’re, if they’re honest, um, and we can draw that out from them and we can point the hold a mirror up and they can begin to see these beliefs that are really causing these behaviors that actually are not in their best interests or in the best interests of the team or the business or whatever the organization is about. Um, so those are two things like, you know, I I’m right. And I’m smarter than everybody else.

Speaker 4 (22:39):

Yeah. I think, um, it also comes down to if they’re asking questions, just because, you know, they read a book or a coach told them it was a good idea, right. There also needs to be tied to a belief of curiosity, right. That they don’t have all the answers and that by asking the questions, I can actually learn something rather than just going through an exercise. Right.

Speaker 5 (22:59):

One of our, I love what a, one of our other coaches here says. Um, he says, you know, when it comes to decisions and strategy, the leadership speak lost when it comes to vulnerability, there’s leadership speak first. And I just think that rings so true. And there’s, there’s a humility and a modesty and a vulnerability that actually really powerful leaders display. Um, but that comes, as you say, from beliefs, those behaviors are actually driven by some core beliefs and motivators that are within. And really one of the most fascinating parts of what we get to do as coaches is to work with leaders, to uncover those for them.

Speaker 4 (23:42):

So I think a big point that Annie really touched on, which I’d love to spend some time unpacking is this concept of thinking in bets, right. When we talk about decision-making, uh, and I think Daniel talked about ditching black and white thinking. It’s funny how quickly we tend to round up in our own minds. Right. I was joking with my wife last night when the meteorologist says there’s a 60% chance of rain. Well, we suddenly roll up, well, of course, it’s going to rain. Right. Can you talk a little bit about, um, how embracing uncertainty can actually make you a more effective leader?

Speaker 5 (24:19):

I think back to many, many years ago, I was a part of a, uh, a leadership team for a business for a large company. And we were in a strategic planning offsite. And I remember, uh, we were talking about strategy and, and then somebody asked the question, well, how can we be sure that whatever we come up with, whatever strategy and decisions we make in the next couple of days, um, are going to be the right ones. And then somebody else got up and they drew a circle on this flip chart. And they said, you know, um, if you think about it, there are things that I know, I know, right. So there are things that we know we know. And actually when you draw that low, imagine like a pie, it’s actually a very small sliver relative to everything else. Then there is a, perhaps a larger portion of things that we know we don’t know, right.

Speaker 5 (25:14):

There are some things that we are consciously aware of things that we don’t know that maybe we can go and find out, or at least, but the largest proportion. And this really struck me many years ago, largest proportion of all things. Um, other things that I don’t know, I don’t know. And so that uncertainty really affects the way in which we go into things like strategic planning, for example, it needs to, because for as long as we believe that that segment of what I know, I know, and what I know I don’t know are larger than they really are. Then I think your, your going against the bats, right. And you’re going against the odds and where that led us to was, um, let’s call it, call it scenario planning with our strategic planning. And we started talking about, okay, so since there’s so much that we don’t know, we don’t know, let’s focus on what we do and, um, begin to put some percentage or likelihoods against different strategies.

Speaker 5 (26:14):

And, and we actually developed like three different scenarios. So if these assumptions are true, then this scenario is probably the realistic one. And so we had a realistic and an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario, and we even named those scenarios, which really helped. And I think you need to have different odds. I think. So what’s realistic. What’s pessimistic. What, um, what is optimistic, but then even, um, I think about pipeline sales where we say, okay, so we’re beginning to talk to this particular account. And what’s the likelihood that is going to turn into business, how much business do we think it’s going to be? And what’s the percentage likelihood, but to be able to put, let’s say it’s worth X thousand dollars, but there’s a call it a 25% chance that that’s likely to happen. Well, now, if you add up that all of those opportunities within the pipeline, you have a more realistic, I think, a more, a more measured assessment and analysis of what the opportunities really look like and how that’s going to affect your business.

Speaker 4 (27:21):

It’s so much great stuff you impact there. Let’s, um, let’s try and drive down on a couple of them. Yeah. Because I think they’d be great for our listeners to kind of explore a little more earlier. We talked about an outcome, uh, with a decision like resulting and that sometimes a leader gets an outcome they didn’t expect. Right. So I think that expectation can be tied to this idea of probability and scenario planning. If we feel the need to see things in black and white, this will work, or this will fail, then suddenly we do get an outcome that we didn’t expect. Right. Because there were only two outcomes. Yeah. So when you talk about this scenario planning for strategic planning, it probably is applicable to many decisions that leaders are making on a regular basis. So when I go into something a hundred percent sure of something, how does that limit my effectiveness as a leader?

Speaker 5 (28:15):

Well, I think you’re, you’re going to focus all your energies, um, whether they be well spent or not, and ensuring that that outcome actually happens. Right? So as leaders, we want to be proven to be right. I, if I’m a hundred percent sure, and I go on record in front of the team and maybe in front of the board or the executive team and say, this is what’s going to happen. You can end up expanding a lot of wasted energy in trying to prove that you are right. And so that’s one thing I think about, I think though, if you go in with a recommendation or proposal and you say, and I have about a 70% certainty that this is going to play out well, you’re still looking to that other 30% and you’re looking for signs or signals, which you would be blinded to otherwise, that would suggest that maybe the 30% is actually going to play out rather than the 70 you bet on.

Speaker 4 (29:08):

I would also think that it limits other people as well. Right. If you, as a leader say that you’re a hundred percent sure of something, I’m probably a lot less likely to engage in conversation or debate or healthy conflict, as you said earlier, to try and talk about an alternative, because in your mind, you’re telling me there is no alternative. So you probably end up shutting down some teammates and some good creativity as well. Yeah. Yeah. It’s funny when we think about, um, how much our brains really love to be. Right. Right. I mean, we all know that in, in, uh, intuitively. Um, but when we are able to embrace this idea of thinking in bets of possibilities, I’m just, I get excited for leaders about what potential that can really open up, right? Because from a creativity, from an innovation standpoint, this idea that there are multiple outcomes and not just one, I think would help position leaders and teams to your point, prepare for lots of scenarios to think things through differently. I think it just elevates the strategic

Speaker 5 (30:11):

Muscle of a team. Yes. I love that notion of a strategic bet too. Um, when I’m working with teams on strategic planning, we, we do this, we identify what are the strategic bets that you’re going to put a disproportionate amount of time, money, and effort into. Um, and that’s the key, right? Because when you’re identifying strategic initiatives, you get to work on these things. And with the whole idea that a strategic bet when it pays off, if it pays off and there’s always an F um, that is going to accelerate your progress toward your desired end result toward your, your, um, long-term vision or your big, hairy, audacious goals, long and short term goals. So this notion of calling it a bet, because it’s not a short, you really, you just don’t know whether or not it’s going to pay off. And I think that ends up being, um, very important, high emotional intelligence thinking, uh, for the team and the leaders. The other piece to this, when I think about, um, from a planning standpoint is the ability to adjust. If it looks like a strategic bet is not paying off. And as we discussed earlier, make sure that you know how to make adjustments and adjustments quickly to be able to move to a different bet. If it doesn’t look like you’re going down the right road, or if it’s not having the desired result. So that ability to adjust and make changes is very important. That agility, that teams need is really important.

Speaker 4 (31:49):

I’d love to shift our focus, maybe a little smaller for a moment though, in that this concept of being overconfident in our decisions, our positions, our beliefs, um, probably affects our relationships at work as well with teammates, right? If I’m a leader who portrays the sense of maybe overconfidence that once my mind is made up, I’m a hundred percent there. This is what we’re doing on an interpersonal level. I think that really limits a leader’s effectiveness as well.

Speaker 5 (32:20):

Well, it affects trust and trust is foundational to any relationship and working relationships too. So if, if I feel that you’re being overconfident, um, that you’re overly optimistic, that’s not my perception typically is going to be that that’s not authentic. And if you’re not acting and behaving with authenticity, then my trust level in you is going to go down. And if I don’t trust you, I’m not going to follow you as strongly as I would otherwise. So how we see our leaders around us, I think has a profound effect on how we behave too. Right. So what do I believe about you as my leader? If I think you’re, over-confident, you’re overly optimistic and that everything is, you know, the glass is always half full and yet reality is not demonstrating that. Um, I, there’s going to definitely go into effect my, uh, my ability to follow you.

Speaker 4 (33:15):

Yeah. I know that this plays out at work and if I’m being honest, I’ve seen it play out at home as well. I think about my, uh, my interactions with my spouse and where I get into the most troublesome times is when we’re having a conversation and I’m a hundred percent sure. I know I’m sure about this. And I know that I stop listening and start trying to prove that I’m right. Right. Because once I have this idea in my head and I’m, I’m sure that I’m right, it becomes more about winning and proving that I’m right than it is about getting to a good place of understanding. Right. Um, have you experienced it?

Speaker 5 (33:53):

Oh, yes. You know, it’s interesting because, um, we’ve had my wife and I have had lots of discussions about this and, uh, and we’ve agreed that, um, you know, it’s almost a joke now cause we, we joke about, well, how certain are you about that? You know, are you, are you a 10 out of 10? Well, I’m more like an eight. Ah, so there is some wriggle room there maybe it’s like, and it’s very helpful because we’re not, I mean, how can any of us be a hundred percent sure about anything really? And, and that, as I get older, I am, I’m discovering, I used to be a lot more sure than I am nowadays. I don’t know why, but I guess it comes from experience. I was going to say, yeah,

Speaker 4 (34:36):

Well, and whether it’s at home, whether it’s at work, I think there is this concept that we’ve touched on a couple of times. Um, I remember a colleague once saying, if you already know the outcome, then you’re not actually making a decision. Yeah, that’s right. That there is this difference between confidence and certainty. And then I think a leader’s job is to be confident, but you get confidence by getting the right inputs, having the right conversations and going through the right process. So you can feel confident about your decision certainty is something that’s hard to obtain. And as we’ve talked about can actually work against you. Yeah,

Speaker 5 (35:11):

Absolutely. Absolutely. And, and ultimately it is about the quality of the decisions you make and the outcomes. Um, you can never really predict them. Uh, you can have a pretty good, pretty good guests and, and, and it’s important to make bets. Right. But then to be realistic about, um, what the likelihood of those different bets is going to be. I think in the end, we all need to, um, just check our own, uh, begins with that. Um, w it really begins with looking yourself in the mirror and, and going back to the beliefs again, what do I believe about myself? What do I believe about my own judgment, or do I believe about, um, other people and how I can use them in order to help them be successful and us all to be successful. Um, but I, um, I’m, I’m about an 80% on that

Speaker 4 (36:02):

In 80%. Let’s see if we can get you a little higher. Well, Jonathan, I think that’s about all the time we have, I’m a hundred percent sure that I’m better off for this conversation. Thank you for sitting down, uh, listeners. Uh, again, any resources that we’ve talked about, uh, for this episode, you can find those at www.buildingchampions.com/podcast, while you’re there, it’s easy to subscribe. So you can stay up to date with the latest episodes. And we’d love for you to take a minute and leave a review. Let us know what you think, because I am confident that we can get better with your input. Thanks so much for investing the time. And we look forward to catching up on the next episode.

Speaker 2 (36:43):

When you learn to ditch black and white thinking, and start seeing more nuance in your beliefs and decisions, your organization will be better prepared for all possible futures. Your team will be more willing to share their opinions and contribute in meaningful ways. And you will be a better leader. One who is open, curious, and fully committed to getting things right, rather than merely being right, thanks to Annie Duke for taking us into the world of poker and teaching us so much about decision-making. And he has a book out called thinking in bets, which I highly recommend. You can find it on Amazon or by visiting Annie duke.com forward slash books. Thanks so much for listening. I hope that what you heard in this episode was a value to you. If it was go ahead and share it with your friends, your colleagues, or family members, whomever you think would benefit from listening. We’d also love it. If you could leave us a rating or a review, your feedback will only help us to grow and to be better.